I don’t think of myself as a conspiracy wacko, but I do believe that the U.S. Federal Reserve controls the stock market — at least, to some degree.
Our True Wealth Systems computers fully back me up on this one, to the point where you could make a lot of money.
Don’t get me wrong. I don’t think Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is sitting on his throne pulling levers to make certain stocks go up or down.
But I do think that what the Fed does matters to stock prices — a lot.
History proves it. Let me explain.
I know this idea might seem crazy. You might think I’m a wacko just for bringing it up. But based on our findings, the Fed’s policies absolutely do affect stock prices, as I’ll show.
To test this idea, we used our True Wealth Systems computers to look at interest-rate data over the past 50 years. Specifically, we looked for times when the Fed "manipulated" interest rates.
How did we test when the Fed is "manipulating" interest rates? It’s simple. We compared short-term interest rates (which the Fed controls) to long-term interest rates (which are more market-driven). Whenever these were out of balance, the Fed was trying to manipulate the economy.
For example, when the Fed wants to give the economy a boost, it cuts short-term interest rates. That makes this spread between long-term and short-term interest rates wider.
Going back to 1962, when this spread is wider than 1.5 percentage points (which it is about half the time), you make about 9 percent a year in stocks (not counting dividends). That’s versus buy-and-hold of 6 percent (also not counting dividends).
On the flip side, when the Fed wants to slow down the economy (when the spread is lower than .5 percentage points, which it is about 25 percent of the time), you lose money in stocks. The full details are below.
| Annualized Gain | |
| All Periods | 6.2% |
| Spread > 1.5% | 8.9% |
| Spread < 0.5% | -0.5% |
We have sliced and diced this data further. But the gory details probably aren’t as interesting as the big conclusion: When the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates is wide, you want to own stocks. And when it’s tight, you lose money in stocks; so you don’t want to own them.
Today, we’re deep in what I call the Bernanke Asset Bubble. The Fed has cut short-term rates to nearly zero and created a large spread of about 1.9 percent. So we’re clearly in "boosting the economy" mode.
No, Bernanke isn’t behind the scenes, pulling levers and causing certain stocks to go up or down. But he is trying to boost the economy.
And, historically, that boosts the stock market.
You want to own stocks now.
Good investing,
— Steve Sjuggerud
This article was originally published on March 15, 2013, at DailyWealth.com.
You can opt-out at any time. We protect your information like a mother hen. We will not sell or rent your email address to anyone for any reason.
The stock market is very simple to follow every morning the first minute of trading is determined by the electronic trades that are pre-programmed from the folks who have the most to loose, namely Bankster plays and where do Banksters get their money to make plays? Why of coarse Bernanki. He props up 9/10s out of ever dollar with fiat currency. The play is made in the first few minutes of the trading day to set the tone. Watch the rest of the trading day and observe the direction of the volume. If others are sucked in then the market will follow the lead of the financials and walla shazzam high volume money is created out of debt and the game moves forward. People follow one another just like sheep around the pasture. If the market is toned toward shorting it goes short the volume increases and walla shazzam your in the money, but in a negative tone, you’re still in the money. The best way to follow the market is follow the charts. If the play is long it’s because they want it to be long, if the market is short it’s because they want it short. Don’t be mislead that the market can correct itself, that’s impossible not now anyway. The market could every easily see 18000 shortly or even visit 12,000 in a short position. Either way it makes no difference up, down, side ways chop. It can’t correct itself as long as we have this guy in the White House. He will not allow it, nor will he allow the EPA to turn in a negative report referencing $4 a gallon gas that just creates more misery and emboldens his allies. We are a debtor nation like it or not only because this market can’t correct itself like a normal market, It’s way to dangerous for everybody. So we continue to play a dangerous game of get a clue .
The market is not allowed to correct itself because Bernanki and company will not allow it to correct itself, there is way to much at stake in the game if allowed to run it’s own coarse. So the market is manipulated and marginalized for the benefit of the greedy and unaware. Then out of a Good Samaritan attitude redistributed through food stamps, unemployment and fundamental totalitarianism. The Social structure can’t survive the reality of a capital market and that’s why Higher Education always wins out over the masses, they are called progressives. We fall for all the survival techniques at our own demise. What we fail to understand is that we are being manipulated just like the non-performers of pre-Germany 1930s, the same exact thing was going on here during our Great Depression. We have been dumbed down to believe it was ole cronyism that caused the Great Stock Market Crash of 1929, when we all know better because when allowed to correct it’s self, it clears out over night unfortunately the margin calls ate up the wealth of America, these were not rich folk that took it in the neck, no it was will orchestrated just like in Germany when Democratic Social injustice was the rule of the day. We get what we wish for, so be careful what you wish for you just may get it in the neck.